Reliability Forecast Report
Add Production Periods
Adjust Production Counts
Tip: If you would rather enter specific numbers than manually adjust the bars, select Spreadsheet Configuration of Risk Sets from the Forecast report red triangle menu. Spreadsheet Configuration of Risk Sets describes this feature.
Right-clicking a blue bar and selecting Exclude removes that risk set from the forecast results. You can then right-click and select Include to return that data to the risk set.
When you adjust production in the left graph, the right graph is updated to estimate future failures (Adjust the Forecast Period). Dragging a hotspot lets you change the forecast period. The orange line then shortens or lengthens to show the estimated failure counts.
Adjust the Forecast Period
To forecast failures for a different contract period, enter the number next to Use Contract Length. Change the time unit if necessary.
To change the distribution fit, select a distribution from the Choose Distribution list. The distribution is then fit to the future graph of future risk. The distribution fit appears on the Life Distribution report plot, and a new profiler is added. Note that changing the distribution fit in the Life Distribution report does not change the fit on the Forecast graph.
If you are more interested in the total number of failures over time, select Cumulative Counts. Otherwise, JMP shows failures sequentially, which might make trends easier to identify.
To add a production period to the forecast, right-click in the Future Risk area and select one of the Append options. (Append Rows adds one row; Append N Rows lets you specify the number of rows.)
After you select Show Interval, the Forecast Interval Type option appears on the menu. Select one of the following interval types:
Plugin Interval considers only forecasting errors given a fixed distribution.
Prediction Interval considers forecasting errors when a distribution is estimated with estimation errors (for example, with a non-fixed distribution).
If the Prediction interval is selected, the Prediction Interval Settings option appears on the menu. Approximate intervals are initially shown on the graph. Select Monte Carlo Sample Size or Random Seed to specify those values instead. To use the system clock, enter a missing number.